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1.6 A SYSTEMS ENGINEERING APPROACH TO MODEL REQUIREMENTS AND MODEL BUILDING

There is considerable evidence that, from the viewpoint of cognitive capacity, we are poorly equipped to deal with complex problems (Diehl and Sterman, 1995; Dörner, 1980; Forrester, 1971; Kleinmuntz, 1985; 1993; Mosekilde and Larson, 1988; Mosekilde, et, al., 1990; Paich and Sterman, 1993; Sterman, 1989a; 1989b; 1989c; 1994; 2002 and Sweeney and Sterman, 2000). Where we might encounter large amounts of detail, we need tools and techniques to manage that detail. Tools such as databases and spreadsheets are widely used and we are generally familiar with these. It is a different story, however, when it comes to problems where we might encounter the additional aspect of dynamic complexity. That is, dynamic complexity in problems is characterised by feedback, delay and resultant counter-intuitive system response. We need specialised tools and techniques to help us build models which create for us the best possible opportunities to understand these complex, dynamic problems.

The approach taken in this book involves taking a systems view and deals with the problem at various levels of aggregation, recognising the nature of complex problems. It utilises systems thinking and systems engineering tools and techniques to support the development of models which together will significantly improve both diagnosis and understanding.

In ‘Managing Complex Technical Projects: A Systems Engineering Approach’, Faulconbridge and Ryan (2002) explain the essentials of systems engineering. In this book we examine how to address complex dynamic problems using system dynamics tools applied through the systems engineering discipline. Systems engineering is an interdisciplinary, comprehensive approach to solving complex problems and satisfying stakeholder requirements. System dynamics modelling supported by the tools and techniques of the systems engineering discipline provide a highly effective approach. Integrating the systems engineering approach into a methodology for building system dynamics models for analysis of complex problems provides a number of benefits. The approach integrates:

References

  • Diehl, E. and Sterman, J., 1995, “Effects of feedback complexity on dynamic decision making”, in: Organisational Behaviour and Human Decision Processes, 62, 2.
  • Dörner, D., 1980, “On the difficulties people have in dealing with complexity”, in: Simulation and Games. 11: 87-106.
  • Forrester, J.W., 1971, “Counter intuitive behaviour of social systems”, in: Technology Review No. 73, January: 52-68.
  • Kleinmuntz, D.N., 1985, “Cognitive heuristics and feedback in dynamics decision environment”, in: Management Science, Vol. 31, No. 6: 680-702.
  • Kleinmuntz, D.N., 1993, “Information processing and misperceptions of the implications of feedback on dynamic decision making”, in: System Dynamics Review, Vol. 9, No. 3 (Fall 1993): 223-237.
  • Mosekilde, E. and Larsen, E.R., 1988, “Deterministic chaos in the beer production-distribution model”, in: System Dynamics Review, Vol. 4, Nos. 1-2: 131-147.
  • Mosekilde, E., Larsen, E.R. and Sterman, J., 1990, “Coping With Complexity: Deterministic Chaos in Human Decision Making Behaviour”, in: J Casti and A Karlqvist (eds.), Beyond Belief: Randomness, Prediction and Exploration in Science. CRC Press, Boston, 1990.
  • Paich, M. and Sterman, J.D., 1993, “Boom, bust, and failures to learn in experimental markets”, in Management Science, Vol. 39, No.12: 1439-1458.
  • Sterman, J.D., 1989a, “Misconceptions of feedback in dynamic decision making”, in Organisational and Human Decision Processes, No. 43: 301-335.
  • Sterman, J.D., 1989b, “Modeling managerial behavior: Misperceptions of feedback in a dynamic decision making Experiment”, in: Management Science, Vol. 35, No. 3: 321-339.
  • Sterman, J.D., 1989c, “Misperceptions of feedback in dynamic decision making”, in: Milling, P.M. and Zahn E.O.K. (eds), International System Dynamics Conference: Computer-Based Management of Complex Systems. International System Dynamics Society, Stuttgart: 21-31.
  • Sterman, J.D., 1994, “Learning in and about complex systems”, in: System Dynamics Review, Vol. 10, No. 2-3, (Summer-Fall): 291-330.
  • Sterman, J.D., 2002, “All models are wrong: reflections on becoming a systems scientist”, in: System Dynamics Review, Vol. 18, No. 4, (Winter): 501-531.
  • Sweeney, L.B. and Sterman J.D., 2000, “Bathtub dynamics: initial results of a systems thinking inventory”, in: System Dynamics Review, Vol. 16, No. 4, (Winter) 2000.
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