7.6.2 Model Building And Use

In this stage we are more reliant on convergent modes of thinking. Convergent thinking is only possible once we have mapped and understood the complexity and the causes. Convergent thinking is used to extract the essence of the issues identified and the most important causal links involved. At this point we build a series of models (either qualitative or quantitative, or both) to help us gauge whether we fully understand the problem, how the problem situation has changed over time and how it might change in the future as the various forces act on it.

It may be necessary to revert to divergent thinking, going back to the beginning of this stage or even to the earlier stage. This may be particularly useful if our choice of model(s) has proven limiting. Whilst we are trying to produce models that reduce the inherent complexity to manageable simplicity, oversimplification may demand we go back and rebuild or re-cast the model before we can use them as the basis for strategy development. Several iterations may be needed.

Many students and managers who see the simplified depiction of the risk-management process, Figure 7-1, which is a variant of our problem-solving process, suggest it is simple. Indeed, if this were so there would be no reason for reading any of the preceding chapters. There would be no justification for the research underlying those chapters, nor for the effort expended in writing them.