1.8 DEVELOPING MENTAL AGILITY
Developing mental agility is an important aid to learning, provided this learning is enabled through understanding of dynamic complexity. Since understanding of complex, systemic behaviour is beyond our intuition and recognition-primed decision making, decision making in complex, systemic dynamic environments must be supported by use of tools and techniques that expose what underlies then supports analysis of complex, systemic, dynamic behaviour.
The following list sets out some key aims and benefits of scenario planning as a risk-management technique:
- People are better informed about the sorts of events that might occur.
- People are better informed about the way events may occur.
- People are more alert about the way events occur and are able to identify the early stages of evolving problem situations. As a result they may be able to react earlier than would be possible otherwise.
- People learn how to challenge their mental models about risk, likelihood and consequence and cause and effect.
- An individual’s mental agility is kept fit and people learn how to learn.
- Scenario building develops means that endure, rather than ends that rarely come true. When teams of people participate in scenario planning, being involved in the activities of scenario planning builds new working relationships between people as well as team coherence.
- It provides a focus on learning about the nature of risks and how they develop.
- It encourages learning.
- It guides organisational learning and transformation, whilst recognising that of necessity risk-management strategies are always built on a partial and temporary view of reality.