Decision Making / 2 / 2.4

2.4 IDENTIFYING WHERE TO APPLY RISK-MANAGEMENT EFFORT

This brings us to the main purpose of presenting concepts and their interrelationships in these maps; to help us identify where to direct our efforts in order to understand and manage extant problems. If we were to commence quantitative analysis at this point, available numbers of Qualified Flying Instructors would be a stock, level or accumulator. Similarly, available numbers of pilots and available numbers of helicopters, would be stocks, levels or accumulators of interest. Quantitative models would be built with the intent of informing strategies for achieving and maintaining appropriate numbers of pilots and instructors, and their levels of operational competence to fly CT/SRO missions. This is discussed further below.

What the Board of Inquiry did find in respect of aircrew shortages is contained in Part 3 of Volume 1 of the Board of Inquiry Report (Australian Army, 1996):

‘Aircrew Shortages

3.251. The Board received consistent testimony regarding aircrew shortages, particularly with respect of [Qualified Flying Instructors] QFI and [General Service Officers] GSO. The shortage of QFI was quoted as being the reason that CAPT Burke had handed over the Flight Lead to CAPT Hales, in order to reduce CAPT Burke’s workload. The shortage of GSO was quoted as being the reason that CAPT Berrigan was [Operations Officer] OPSO A Sqn 5 Avn Regt while still a relatively junior officer and an inexperienced pilot. The Board was advised by several witnesses that [Australian Army Aviation] AAAvn Corps has suffered the resignation of approximately 30 QFI in the past year or 18 months. This had imposed a heavier burden on those who remained. The drain of senior pilots from 5 Avn Regt to train as QFI, in turn, reduced experience levels in the unit.

3.252. The reason for the aircrew shortages was advised to the Board as being a combination of particularly high separation rates of [Specialist Service Officers] SSO, as well as GSO and of an inability of the recruiting and training pipelines to sustain an increased throughput to fill vacancies. The Board was advised that the limited career prospects and finite, non-extendable tenure of SSO beyond two five-year tours was the cause of the high separation rate of SSO. GSO were also reported to be in short supply due principally to employment opportunities in the commercial aviation sector.

3.253. The Board is of the view that the shortage of aircrew (QFI and GSO in particular) may have contributed to the accident in that it led to the employment of inexperienced persons in critical positions. The board was advised that submissions had been made to alter SSO terms of employment and conditions of service. Review of such matters would appear to be an essential precursor to correction of aircrew shortages in AAAvn.’

This brief exposé of Aircrew Shortages serves to suggest that:

• more detailed analysis into aspects such as recruiting, training, employment and separation rates might have been conducted well before this accident occurred;
• another concept map might be drawn to provide a more detailed representation, including aspects listed in a., above; and
• recruiting, training, employment, conditions of service and separation are linked through a set of ‘business rules’ not enunciated here, for example:
• a change in recruiting rates will affect achievable training rates, and
• a change in separation rates might be made by a change in conditions of service, or a change in the attractiveness of continued Service employment.

This case study readily demonstrates how concept mapping can be a very useful tool for identifying where risks are and where to apply management effort. Aspects which might have been centres of management attention include:

• achieving higher levels of availability of Black Hawk helicopters,
• conflict between aircraft servicing and pilot training,
• recruitment of pilots,
• availability of Qualified Flying Instructors, and
• achieving competence in flying various types of mission.

Further to the basics introduced at Section 1.4.4-5, the reader may find advanced material in Eden and Spender (1998). This provides arguably the most valuable compendium of papers on the application of concept (causal) mapping techniques. Eden and Spender investigate the strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats to using these techniques. They and Eden and Ackermann (1998a) demonstrate the state-of-the art in elicitation and documentation of managerial and organisational operative knowledge, and business rules, which guide daily choices and actions. Such techniques can play important roles both in detailed qualitative analysis and informing choices about when and where best to apply quantitative analysis.

Aircrew shortages should have been the subject of detailed quantitative analysis, using disciplines such as system dynamics modelling, to inform recruiting policies and other management strategies. Figures 2-7 to 2-9 considered in the context of Figure 2-6 suggest declining morale, was an issue and was symptomatic of, or contributed to, other deeply rooted problems. Let us expand this point by reference back to our case study.