Decision Making / 5

5 ADDRESSING WICKED RISK-MANAGEMENT PROBLEMS

The class of problems investigated in Chapters 2 and 3, and characterised in Chapter 4, present decision makers with uncertainty, ambiguity and conflict. Given our definition and descriptions of these problems, and the insights we have gained about dynamic behaviour, we still need to determine how to develop effective remedial strategies to deal with them. Pioneers in the fields of systems thinking and system dynamics have recognised from the beginning that these wicked problems can respond in counter-intuitive ways to our remedial efforts. These problems easily exceed human cognitive capabilities and confound our intuition and judgement. We must analyse complex feedback dynamics and augmentation of naturalistic mental simulation of strategies.

Based on analysis of preceding chapters and the literature review, this chapter outlines the principles of method for addressing wicked problems. Here we focus on developing tactics to bring about better understanding; identifying and structuring the ‘right’ problem; analysing the effects alternate strategies might have; and how to develop consensus and commitment to enact a chosen strategy. Developing a commitment to act is considered a critically important outcome, given the lack of response to environmental cues, and lack of action by managers apparent in the cases studied.