Decision Making / 4 / 4.8

4.8 WHY COMPLEX PROBLEMS ARE DIFFICULT TO MANAGE

None of the wicked problems described in Chapters 2 and 3 arose over a short period or without warning. In each, the crucial and highly influential ‘before’ period, during which systemic structures, the precursors to the ultimate tragic outcomes, were found to exist, were months or years long. Over these significant periods, warning signs appeared, but were ignored or were not acted upon in any meaningful way. Further, whatever was done was ineffective. This is highly problematic.

We could well ask why warning signs were ignored or did not ring alarm bells among managers involved, participants or casual observers. Part of the answer lies in the failure to recognise the warning signs for what they were. Because the warning signs were not seen in the context of the whole problem, they were taken as normal, albeit untidy or undesirable. They were seen as isolated or, at best, loosely linked events. Whilst some concern was expressed about them, little follow-up action was taken.

Sterman (2000) observes that many such problems arise as the unanticipated side-effects of our own past actions. Often these side effects are not recognised as being linked to what has gone before, including our past actions, because of delays in system response. Delays may vary from days to years. When the underlying systemic structures manifest themselves as feedback and delay, or shifting feedback loop dominance, problems behave in counter-intuitive ways (Forrester, 1961).

In each of the cases studied, symptoms that suggest something insidious was developing existed in varied forms, although there were many common ones. In the Black Hawk case, morale among pilots had been a long-standing problem. Closer to the crash there was frustration, tension and uncertainty among pilots, and between pilots and their Officer Commanding (OC). Despite apparent confusion about the mission to be flown that fateful evening, and concerns about safety, the OC insisted the exercise was to proceed.