Decision Making / 5 / 5.1 / 5.1.5

5.1.5 Unavoidable Complexity

Risky situations can be exceedingly complex. For an example, see Section 3.6. This is a fact some decision makers would prefer to ignore. Although complexity pervades virtually every aspect of life we all tend to ignore it, instead opting for simplified views that make decision making easier and our lives less complicated. A fundamental consideration is whether or not an apparently simplified approach we observe being employed to solve a problem is carefully crafted on the basis of experience and knowledge, or inappropriately based on over-simplification, intuition, bias, or habit. A doctor, for example, may choose to treat familiar symptoms without ordering a series of tests to determine the root cause of an illness. What may not be clear is the extent to which experience and knowledge have been applied and how risk to the patient was assessed. There is little room for over-simplification, intuition, bias, habit or other inappropriate decision practices in medical diagnosis. Such is unacceptable. Poor decision practices are equally unacceptable in managerial situations where consequences are significant. Nutt (1989) observes after researching decision making and decision practices over a period of some 20 years that, when dealing with highly complex and dynamic situations, decision makers repeatedly employ inappropriate decision practices. It is argued that managers and decision makers could well do better, particularly given the tools and techniques described in this book.