7.5.5 Risk Treatment
Mitigation strategies should focus on minimising the effects of events playing out as suggested by, or imagined through, the scenarios developed. This involves identifying pressure points and leverage points to which management effort should be routinely applied. It is at this stage that simulation is used to great effect. The key stakeholders are asked to imagine what might happen if certain circumstances were to prevail. The analysis of possible futures is facilitated asking a series of ‘what-if’ questions based on the scenarios created. There the Effects-Based Planning of Ducyznski (2002)5 would be most valuable.
Referring back to the Black Hawk case, this might involve asking what would be the likely result of a further degradation of morale, or prolonged unserviceability of aircraft. Using the same process, ‘what-if’ questioning about a strategy to greatly improve morale and serviceability of aircraft, either as single independent initiatives or in combination. In the Royal Canberra Hospital Implosion case, the question might have been asked… ‘what if the implosion were to be conducted at 4 a.m. on a Wednesday morning with an exclusion zone of, say, 600m in place?’
Footnotes
- [5] Many criticisms have been levelled at the abstract nature of scenario planning and its inability to link with the more practical, grounded aspects of strategic planning. Similarly, strategic planning is often condemned for its near-sightedness and inability to accommodate the volatility and chaotic nature of the contextual environment. The doctoral research of Guy Duczynski has successfully fused these two domains using an advanced effects-based methodology, using scenarios to explore the problem space, effects to deepen the solution space and then merging the two within a design space to make actions more purposeful. The method has been successfully employed in national security, commercial and social settings. back