Decision Making / 1 / 1.4 / 1.4.6

1.4.6 Robustness Of Mapping

Cognitive psychologists Bannister and Mair (1968) analysed Kelly’s foundation work and subsequent developments in this area of psychology. They provide a comprehensive and critical review of the theory and applications. Their work strongly suggests Kelly’s views expounded 13 years earlier remain valid and most useful in the interpretation of exploratory propensities of the individual mind. They forecast that Kelly’s theory and methodology would come to hold a special place in any science of behaviour since he is concerned explicitly to conceptualise the theories, methodologies and behaviour of men in their scientist-like qualities and endeavours. Cognitive- and concept- mapping techniques, knowledge elicitation, recording, and analysis based on Kelly’s theory have endured the test of time, and are considered to be sound.

Klein and Cooper (1982) in a collaborative research task with the British Ministry of Defence, observed that human decision processes always take place within the subjective world of the individual decision maker. Even when presented with the same information, decision makers view the same problem quite differently, potentially producing different answers.

To investigate decision-making behaviour, Klein and Cooper set up a war game, in which each player, in turn, was given the role of the same senior decision maker. They mapped how players responded to a sequence of pre-planned events in the game. They used cognitive mapping, albeit in a somewhat different form to that presented here, to compare how different players behaved in exactly the same sequence of objective circumstances.

In respect of cognitive mapping, Klein and Cooper (1982) found:

• A cognitive map may be viewed, as an external model of a decision process, as a model that can represent the complex ideas and interrelationships perceived by a decision maker in a concise, tangible and manageable form.
• In this framework, a cognitive map is a means of communication, not only for the transfer of perceptions and ideas between different decision makers, but also for aiding an individual decision maker to elucidate his own perceptions.
• Cognitive maps may be used:
• as forms of communication in the process of problem negotiation between the client and analyst, also as described by Eden et al. (1979, 1983);
• in teaching decision-making skills;
• for assessing the ways in which decision makers acquire problem-solving strategies as they learn about a new problem and its environment; and
• in decision-making research.

In respect of perspectives of decision makers, Klein and Cooper found:

• One decision maker can see the same objective situation in a completely different way from another.
• Decision makers approached a given scenario according to the (initial confidence they had in their own ability.
• In their second encounter with the game, players appeared to take it more seriously. Players may have realised that the game was very similar to Command Post Exercises (which they encountered during military exercises and) with which they were familiar, and that the game was non-trivial.
• Players’ responses were dynamic: perceptions changed. Some aspects of the cognitive maps recorded during subsequent games; involving a given individual, were found to be elaborated in finer detail, whilst others were lost from consideration.

Observations made by Klein and Cooper are noted for their relevance to decision making and risk management in dynamic environments.