4 COMING TO GRIPS WITH 'WICKED' PROBLEMS IN RISKY SITUATIONS
In the preceding chapters we looked at a number of real-life case studies with a view to identifying where others went wrong and therefore determining how we could become more effective in risk management. At the root of each of the cases studied was a complex, dynamic and systemic web of interrelationships. We now recognise this as the structure of the problem. It is this web of interrelationships and ever-changing influences, or systemic structure that creates many of the difficulties we experience in managing effectively.
The nature of these ‘wicked’ problems is characterised in this chapter with the intent of providing insights into how we might develop highly effective methods for identifying, analysing and managing them, thereby mitigating the risks in particular situations we might be called upon to manage. This chapter also reviews the literature with particular focus on what researchers have observed about complexity and human ability to make decisions, and develop and implement risk-management strategies in the types of environments typified by the case studies. This chapter also considers related activities including problem conceptualisation, problem solving, understanding, learning, and communicating.
The product of this chapter is a foundation for enunciating a set of principles of a proffered methodology to address wicked problems such as those that challenge risk managers. Despite much already being written about the risk-management process, to identify the principles then combine them into an integrated methodology is not a simple task. Here the risk-management process is typically that enunciated in AS/NZS 4360: Risk Management. This risk-management process is taken to be more than sufficient to guide managers through the necessary sequence of events. This book does not suggest that changes be made to that process. Rather, it expands on the process and explains how managers can become much more effective when working through the risk-management process.
This chapter also reviews factors that militate against our effectiveness in dealing with complex risks in organisational contexts.