Decision Making / 4 / 4.9 / 4.9.8

4.9.8 Tame Vs. Wicked Problems—Reproduceability

A tame problem can be abstracted from the real world, and attempts can be made to solve it over and over again until the correct solution is found. Each wicked problem is [unique, and solving it can be] a one-shot operation. Once a solution is attempted, you can never undo what you have already done. There is no trial and error.

Trial and error development of strategy can be highly impractical in the real world. This lack of opportunities to develop and test our personal constructs (Kelly, 1956), or mental models (Senge, 1990) inhibits double-loop learning (Morecroft and Sterman, 1994). However, we can develop and test strategies in virtual worlds without creating collateral damage.

Computing and modelling technology are fast becoming accessible to virtually everyone, meaning powerful analytical tools are now on the desktop. Previously they were accessible only to a select few.

Morecroft and Sterman (1994) highlight the advantages of virtual world modelling. Virtual world modelling provides opportunities to repeatedly test a policy or strategy in a benign environment prior to foisting it onto the real world with attendant risks. Virtual world modelling also provides vitally important opportunities for learning about dynamic behaviour and what generates that behaviour. Computational modelling is not discussed further. The reader should be reassured that, if needed, these techniques are readily accessible and considerable expertise exists to support quantitative analysis, should this be warranted.