Decision Making / 4 / 4.9 / 4.9.3

4.9.3 Tame Vs. Wicked Problems—Testability

The solution to a tame problem can be tested; mistakes and errors can be pinpointed. There is no single criteria system or rule that determines whether the solution to a wicked problem is correct or false. Solutions can only be good or bad relative to one another.

In an attempt to determine whether a solution is correct or false, we iterate (Homer, 1996). ‘Reference modes of behavior’ (Richardson and Pugh, 1981) are identified then replicated by modelling. Simulations are repeatedly run with aims of validating against the reference modes of behaviour and to build confidence that the models replicate reference modes.

This is a trial-and-error process. So, there can be no definitive testing of multi-dimensional models by re-inserting the solutions back into the model(s), thereby testing validity, and under all possible conditions, and for the whole parameter space. Further, many risk-management problems we might choose to model are difficult to quantify so we have little option but to deal with them in qualitative terms. Consequently, the ‘correctness’ of such models cannot be gauged in absolute terms. Models can only be assessed in terms of their ability to replicate observed behaviour. In practice, quantitative modelling becomes even more difficult. We may be constrained, by data collection or our perspective of the problem, to observing only some of the complete set of dynamic reference modes of the problem.