3.3 IDENTIFYING CANDIDATES FOR QUANTITATIVE MODELLING
In the Royal Canberra Hospital case, the concept mapping analysis did not reveal opportunities for system dynamics modelling (McLucas, 2001)1. In retrospect, it is clear that blast-effects modelling might have been applied to predict the likely outcomes of the proposed implosion methodology. However, even without anything as sophisticated as forensic modelling of any type, it is obvious from the mapping where management effort should have been applied. That is an important finding. What is much more profound is that situation awareness, had it developed early, could have averted these tragedies. This statement is not made with the intent of gaining kudos for being clever after the event. But, it is clear that routine application of systems thinking and development of situation of awareness can be powerful enablers of effective risk management.
Footnotes
- [1] The author’s PhD research investigated the integration of qualitative and quantitative system dynamics modelling. An aim of this research was to enhance the manager’s capabilities when dealing with complex, dynamic and systemic problems. As part of that research, a number of relatively sophisticated quantitative computer models were built as aids to strategy development. It was found that, in the majority of instances, careful and informed use of qualitative modelling is more than enough to guide development of highly effective corrective strategies. This qualitative modelling also helps in determining when quantitative (computational system dynamics) modelling and simulation may be needed. back
References
- McLucas, A.C., 2001, An Investigation into the Integration of Qualitative and Quantitative Techniques for Addressing Systemic Complexity in the Context of Organisational Strategic Decision Making, PhD Dissertation, University of New South Wales, Canberra, Australia.