Decision Making / 2 / 2.3

2.3 INSIGHTS DERIVED FROM FEEDBACK LOOPS

Contemplation of Figure 2-6 structure reveals several circular feedback loops. One is shown at Figure 2-7, below.

Interrelationships might be interpreted as follows … high separation rate for pilots led to, or resulted in, a shortage of trained aircrew, which, in turn, led to overloading of the remaining individual aircrew and this led to declining morale, which after a delay led to high separation rates for pilots. It should be noted that temporal causality, designated by ‘T’ does not appear in Figure 2-6 because that map depicts a higher level of aggregation. In a feedback loop such as this, there is no start point and no end point.

We might summarise the loop as Concepts No 22 → 23 → 25 → 27 → 22: declining morale → high separation rates for pilots → shortage of trained aircrew → overloading individual aircrew → declining morale. Figure 2-8 builds on Figure 2-7 to include the following loops:

• Concepts No 22 → 24 → 26 → 22: → declining morale → high separation rates for Qualified Flying Instructors → overloading remaining Qualified Flying Instructors → declining morale; and
• Concepts 22 → 24 → 25 → 27 → 22: declining morale → high separation rates for Qualified Flying Instructors → shortage of trained aircrew → overloading individual aircrew → declining morale.

This serves to highlight that several factors impacted upon morale, making morale decline progressively. These are positive feedback loops. They reinforce the effect of declining morale. As morale declines, pilots feel compelled to leave. When they do they create a greater shortage of trained aircrew. That increases the overloading of individual aircrew who become increasingly despondent with their plight, become more inclined to seek alternate employment. They too may leave. A similar situation existed for Qualified Flying Instructors.

As the picture grows, we consider other links to declining morale, from Concepts No 10 and 28, as depicted in Figure 2-9.

We now see that a shortage in serviceable aircraft in 1994 and 1995 contributed to declining morale, as did a degradation of flying standards. Logic suggests there should be a link between available numbers of Qualified Flying Instructors, not shown, and degradation of flying standards. A concept, available numbers of Qualified Flying Instructors, is not shown because the detail was not contained in the Chief of Army’s Report, but the nature of that interrelationship would be discovered had further, and more detailed analysis been undertaken. A logical omission from the Executive Summary has been discovered?